Proposed Peace Treaty Between Russia and Ukraine

Proposed Peace Treaty Between 

Russia and Ukraine

The task before us is monumental: crafting a path towards peace between Russia and Ukraine. This requires acknowledging the deeply entrenched, often contradictory strategic objectives of both parties, and finding a framework where core needs can be met, or at least addressed sufficiently, to cease hostilities and build a foundation for a stable future, however difficult that may be.

As an expert international peace negotiator, I understand that any viable treaty cannot grant either side a total victory based on their maximalist aims. It must, however, provide enough security, sovereignty, and acknowledgement of key concerns to be preferable to continued conflict. Trust is non-existent, so robust verification and international guarantees are paramount.

Here is a proposed framework for a comprehensive peace treaty, acknowledging the complexities outlined:

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Treaty of Sustainable Peace Between Russia and Ukraine

Preamble:

Acknowledging the devastating human cost and regional/global instability caused by the conflict; recognizing the fundamental principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the right to security for all states as enshrined in the UN Charter; affirming the desire of both parties to end the bloodshed and establish conditions for a lasting peace; understanding the need for difficult compromises to achieve these ends; this Treaty establishes the following terms:

Article I: Cessation of Hostilities and Withdrawal of Forces

1. Immediate Ceasefire: Upon entry into force of this Treaty, a comprehensive and immediate ceasefire shall be observed by all forces under the command of the Russian Federation and Ukraine across all fronts.
2. Disengagement Line: A mutually agreed Line of Disengagement (LoD) shall be established, initially corresponding to the front lines at the time of the ceasefire agreement.
3. Phased Withdrawal:
   • Phase 1 (Days 1-30): Both parties shall withdraw heavy weaponry (artillery, tanks, multiple rocket launchers exceeding a specified caliber/range) 50 kilometers from the LoD, verified by an International Monitoring Mission (IMM) established under Article VII.
   • Phase 2 (Days 31-90): Russian Federation forces shall withdraw completely from all Ukrainian territory occupied after February 21, 2022, excluding Crimea and designated areas within the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts defined in Article II. Ukrainian forces will advance concurrently but maintain a buffer zone coordinated by the IMM.
   • Phase 3 (Days 91-180): Establishment of agreed-upon force limitations and postures along the international border and within designated zones (See Article IV).
4. Demilitarized Zone: A Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) of 20 kilometers (10 km on each side) shall be established along specific, highly contested segments of the LoD and the international border, as defined in an Annex and monitored by the IMM.

Article II: Territorial Status and Governance

1. Sovereignty: Russia reaffirms its recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty and independence within internationally recognized borders, subject to the specific provisions of this Article. Ukraine reaffirms its sovereignty over its entire territory.
2. Territories Occupied Post-Feb 2022: Territories occupied by Russia after February 21, 2022 (excluding Crimea and areas defined below) shall revert fully to Ukrainian administration following the withdrawal outlined in Article I.
3. Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Specific Areas):
   • Areas within the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts controlled by Russia or its proxies before February 22, 2022, shall be granted a Special Status of Autonomy within Ukraine for a transitional period of 15 years.
   • This status includes extensive rights regarding local governance, language use (guaranteeing Russian alongside Ukrainian as official languages within these areas), cultural matters, local policing, and direct economic ties, governed by specific legislation passed by the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada in consultation with representatives from these areas and international mediators.
   • These areas shall remain demilitarized, with security guaranteed initially by the IMM and transitioning to locally recruited police forces vetted by the IMM. Ukraine retains control over international borders.
   • After 15 years of sustained peace and adherence to the autonomous status provisions, a UN-supervised referendum may be considered on the future status of these specific areas, conditional upon the return of displaced persons and verified free/fair conditions.
4. Crimea:
   • The status of Crimea remains a point of fundamental disagreement. To enable peace, both parties agree to defer the final determination of Crimea's status for a period of 20 years.
   • During this period:
     • A special Demilitarized Free Economic Zone regime will apply to Crimea, overseen by an international council including representatives from Russia, Ukraine, the UN, and guarantor states.
     • Russia maintains its existing military basing rights as per pre-2014 agreements (subject to verification and limitations agreed upon in an Annex), but no expansion or stationing of nuclear-capable systems.
     • Ukraine and Russia shall guarantee unimpeded access (land, sea, air) for civilians and goods. Water supplies from Ukraine shall be restored under internationally agreed terms.
     • Rights of all residents (including Tatars) will be guaranteed and monitored by the IMM/UN.
   • Negotiations on the final status will commence no later than year 18, mediated by the UN Secretary-General or their appointed representative.

Article III: Political Arrangements

1. Non-Interference: Both parties commit to the principle of non-interference in each other's internal affairs. Russia explicitly renounces goals related to changing the political leadership or orientation of Ukraine ("de-Nazification," regime change).
2. Minority Rights: Ukraine commits to upholding and strengthening protections for the linguistic and cultural rights of all national minorities, including Russian speakers, in line with European conventions, subject to monitoring by relevant international bodies (e.g., OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities).
3. Constitutional Neutrality: Ukraine declares its status as a permanently neutral state. It commits not to join any military alliance (including NATO) nor permit the stationing of foreign military bases or forces on its territory (except for the IMM as defined herein). This status shall be enshrined in the Ukrainian Constitution.

Article IV: Security Guarantees and Military Posture

1. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: In recognition of Ukraine's adoption of neutral status, legally binding security guarantees shall be provided by a group of Guarantor States (e.g., the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, Turkey, Italy, Canada, Poland – subject to negotiation). These guarantees must explicitly outline mechanisms for consultation and collective action (including potential military assistance) in the event of aggression against Ukraine. Russia shall be invited to be a Guarantor, conditional on adherence to this treaty.
2. Ukrainian Armed Forces: Ukraine retains the right to maintain sovereign armed forces sufficient for self-defense and territorial integrity, consistent with its neutral status. Agreed limitations on specific categories of offensive weaponry (e.g., long-range missiles) and overall force size may be negotiated and included in an Annex, subject to verification by the IMM. Ukraine may continue to receive military equipment and training for defensive purposes.
3. Russian Military Posture: Russia agrees to limitations on the deployment of offensive forces and strike capabilities within a specified distance (e.g., 100-200 km) of the Ukrainian border, subject to reciprocal verification.
4. European Security Dialogue: Both parties agree to participate constructively in broader European security dialogues (e.g., within the OSCE) aimed at rebuilding trust, enhancing transparency, and addressing mutual security concerns, including arms control.

Article V: Humanitarian Issues and Reconstruction

1. Prisoner Exchange: An immediate "all-for-all" exchange of prisoners of war and detainees held in connection with the conflict, facilitated by the ICRC.
2. Refugees and Displaced Persons: Both parties commit to facilitating the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their places of origin, with international assistance and monitoring. Property rights will be respected and mechanisms for restitution or compensation established.
3. International Reconstruction Fund: An internationally administered fund shall be established for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Contributions will be sought globally. Mechanisms for potentially utilizing frozen Russian assets for this purpose will be explored within international legal frameworks, potentially linked to verified Russian compliance with this treaty.
4. War Crimes Accountability: An International Independent Commission of Inquiry, under UN auspices, shall investigate alleged war crimes and atrocities committed by all parties during the conflict. Both signatories agree to cooperate with the Commission. While this treaty focuses on cessation of hostilities, it does not preclude future accountability processes under established international legal mechanisms (e.g., ICC, national jurisdictions where applicable). Reparations beyond the Reconstruction Fund may be addressed through separate future mechanisms or legal processes.

Article VI: Economic Relations

1. Transit: Russia guarantees unimpeded transit of goods, including grain, from Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea. Ukraine guarantees unimpeded transit necessary for supply lines related to agreed Russian presences (e.g., in Crimea during the transitional period) under IMM supervision.
2. Sanctions Relief: The phased lifting of international sanctions imposed on Russia shall be explicitly linked to verified compliance with the key stages of this Treaty, particularly withdrawal of forces and adherence to territorial/security provisions.
3. Energy: Agreements regarding the transit of Russian energy through Ukraine will be renegotiated commercially, ensuring Ukraine's energy security and fair transit fees.

Article VII: Implementation and Verification

1. International Monitoring Mission (IMM): A robust, well-resourced IMM shall be established, potentially under UN or OSCE mandate but with broad international participation and technical capabilities (e.g., satellite imagery, drones, ground patrols). The IMM will monitor ceasefire, withdrawals, DMZs, force limitations, Special Status areas, and humanitarian access.
2. Joint Implementation Commission (JIC): Composed of representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the Guarantor States/key international bodies (UN, OSCE, ICRC). The JIC will oversee treaty implementation, resolve disputes, and coordinate IMM activities.
3. Dispute Resolution: Disputes arising from the interpretation or implementation of this treaty shall first be addressed within the JIC. If unresolved, they shall be referred to mediation by the UN Secretary-General or binding arbitration by an agreed international body.

Article VIII: Entry into Force and Duration

1. This Treaty shall enter into force upon signature by the authorized representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and ratification according to their respective constitutional procedures.
2. The provisions regarding Special Status (Art II.3) and Deferred Status (Art II.4) have specific durations as noted. Other core provisions (ceasefire, sovereignty, neutrality, security guarantees) are intended to be permanent unless amended by mutual consent.
3. A review conference shall be convened every 5 years by the JIC to assess implementation and address any emerging challenges.

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Negotiator's Notes:

• Painful Concessions: This requires Ukraine to formally concede neutrality (a core goal adjustment) and accept complex, potentially unstable arrangements for Donbas and Crimea (falling short of full immediate restoration). Russia must withdraw from vast territories, accept significant limitations on its influence over Ukraine's internal politics, renounce annexation beyond Crimea/parts of Donbas (itself deferred/conditional), and agree to robust international monitoring on its borders and potentially involving its assets.
• Buffer Zone vs. Security Guarantees: Russia achieves its goal of preventing NATO expansion to Ukraine. Ukraine receives neutrality plus strong, actionable security guarantees from multiple powers, aiming to make future aggression prohibitively costly for Russia.
• Territory: This is the most difficult compromise. Deferring Crimea and creating special autonomy for parts of Donbas within Ukraine is an attempt to stop the fighting now while leaving pathways for future resolution that don't involve immediate, total capitulation by either side on their core territorial claims.
• "De-militarization": Reframed as neutrality and verifiable force limitations, not subjugation. Ukraine retains defensive capability.¹
• Accountability: Deferred to international processes to avoid making the peace treaty itself unsignable, but the door remains open. Reconstruction fund offers a practical path forward.
• Verification is Key: The entire structure depends on the credibility and capability of the IMM and the political will of the Guarantors to enforce the terms.

This framework is designed to be a starting point for intense negotiation. Every article contains elements that will be deeply unpalatable to one or both sides, but the alternative – perpetual war – is far worse. Success hinges on battlefield stalemate creating ripeness for compromise, sustained international pressure, and a willingness from leadership on both sides to choose a difficult peace over continued conflict.